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  • Writer's pictureReno Stephens

Modelling, Mandela, and Monarchy

Updated: Nov 27, 2022

Back in March, I was presented with the opportunity to attend a two week in-person course at Imperial College London, a world class research institution. I decided to apply for the 'Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases' course taught by faculty under the leadership of Professor Neil Ferguson.


Dr. Neil Ferguson


During the beginning and peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Dr. Ferguson played a pivotal role worldwide for his modelling work in tracking the pattern of spread of the virus. Using statistical models that considered data on the number of deaths and recoveries inside China, travelers outside China, and in those affected that had returned home, Ferguson and his team estimated that detected cases of COVID-19 had significantly underestimated the actual spread of the disease in China. Therefore, being able to attend a timely course taught by a leader in the field of disease modelling turned into a priority mission of mine. After being accepted, a series of unfortunate circumstances took place, which resulted in the course being overbooked with no seats remaining when it was time for me to register and pay. I was placed on a waitlist with just two weeks remaining before the course was set to begin, with little likelihood that a seat would open up. I had already made plans to stay with my sister and her husband at their apartment in London while attending the course and to be able to spend quality time with them during the evenings and weekends.


All of a sudden, just five days before the course was set to begin, I received an email stating that there was a last minute opening. I immediately checked flights to see what was still available for a departure that upcoming weekend. There were just four tickets left. The next day I got the green light from my team to go ahead and register for the seat. However, when I checked for flights, everything was completely sold out until the following week. Unfortunately, flight options within Malawi are not very abundant. Although it would take double the usual travel time, after numerous searches, I managed to find one option within budget that was still available. I was desperate, so I took what I could get.


Just by chance, that same day, it was announced that Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom had passed away at 96 years-old. It was a sad week of mourning to follow and a part of world history to experience that doesn't come by often. Whether you were a fan of the Queen and the British monarchy or not, this was an event that brought people from all walks of life across the globe together. With that being said, the next day, it was time to begin the first leg of my long journey to London. The flight went from Lilongwe, Malawi up north to Nairobi, Kenya, followed by a four hour layover. I then proceeded back south to Johannesburg, South Africa where I had a 12 hour layover. As bad as that may sound, I was pretty excited about the long layover, because it gave me the opportunity to get out of the airport and explore a new city in a new country I had never been to. I managed to grab the contact of a Malawian Uber driver in Johannesburg from a colleague at work, who picked me up from the airport and drove me to the Nelson Mandela Apartheid Museum.



The museum visit was a really inspiring experience that showcased the upbringing and ups and downs Nelson Mandela and the black South Africans faced in a rapidly evolving diaspora under colonial rule. The museum was absolutely massive with a wealth of information to provide. Unfortunately, I felt like I barely made a dent in the two and a half hours that I spent there. The place truly was a maze, which also made it a bit difficult to navigate through chronologically.


The entrance to the Apartheid Museum



Your entrance ticket randomly assigns you to one of the two entrances


Following my short stint in Johannesburg, I then flew directly to Amsterdam, where I had another four hour layover. I finally made it to London, UK after nearly 40 hours of travel time. It was an exhausting trip, but I was excited to be back in London and finally take a shower and eat a proper meal with my sister and her husband.



The course began the next morning with an excel and math refresher followed by meeting all the staff, faculty, and other students. It was incredible to see the diversity within the room as there were 30 students from Pakistan, India, Japan, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of Congo, France, Burundi, Uganda, USA, Brazil, Israel, and more. The various backgrounds and vast experiences of the students truly brought life to the discussions and made it extra special and engaging. Oftentimes, modelers get critiqued negatively by the media and public because they are perceived to be incorrect with their projections. In fact, there is a common saying in statistics that states all models are wrong, but some are useful. Many people in the field of statistics try to develop theoretical models aiming to predict the behavior of a certain process. Thus, the idea of this quote is that every single model will be wrong, meaning that it will never represent the exact real behavior. Having said that, even if a model cannot describe exactly the reality, it could be very helpful if it is close enough. With quality data, good models can help provide direction in how to make critical informed decisions that can affect the lives of the global population. Mathematical modelling of diseases plays a key role in policy making, including health-economic aspects; emergency planning and risk assessment; control-program evaluation; and monitoring of surveillance data. In research, it is essential in study design, analysis (including parameter estimation) and interpretation.


Through the course, we were able to understand the key concepts of infectious disease transmission and control, learn how modelling informs policy-making through case-studies, and understand how different control measures (e.g. vaccination, treatment, isolation, quarantine, travel restrictions) will be effective - or ineffective - for different diseases. We then were able to apply all the methods learned during the first week of the course into a mini group project for either Ebola, HIV, or vector-borne diseases (infections transmitted by the bite of an infected arthropod species including Malaria, Leishmaniasis, and River Blindness). I chose to explore Ebola as it was something outside my current field of HIV and a disease of concern that was very timely as an Ebola outbreak had just been announced by the World Health Organization that same week in Uganda. We were able to use publicly available case data to project infections, deaths, and recoveries from the 2014 outbreak of Ebola in Sierra Leone with the introduction of a pharmaceutical intervention halfway through to illustrate how the trajectory of the epidemic would play out under various circumstances and conditions. The software we used for the modelling was cutting edge (odin- https://bit.ly/3OCZJBb), but also had a steep learning curve, so what we could do with it within only two weeks was quite limited. However, it was just a foundation to build off of and an introduction to the application of mathematical modelling for disease transmission dynamics.


Malawians from UNC Research at the course

Fun fact: right across the street is where penicillin was invented in 1928 by Alexander Fleming at St. Mary's Hospital


The start of the second week of the course began with a national day of mourning in which the whole country shut down to honor the life of the Queen during her funeral procession. While many people waited for days to get a glimpse of the Queen's coffin and pay their respects, my sister, her husband, and I walked over near Hyde Park right at the beginning of the public events. It was absolutely chaotic with people lined up all along the streets just trying to catch a sighting of the family and procession pathway from Buckingham Palace to Westminster Hall. Additionally, a canon was fired 38 times at the park for every minute of the Queen's procession for her lying in the state.



The cannon shot every minute


It was certainly a once in a lifetime experience to be a part of and witness in person. In the days leading up to the funeral as well as after, it was interesting to hear the varying perspectives and opinions of the Queen's death from the general public. It seemed that the younger generations cared less about it and were ready to move on given her old age and their disapproval of the history of the monarchy system as a whole. On the contrary, the elder generation or those above 40 were more saddened by the end of an era for a Queen who brought happiness and hope for many people. However, her death sparked mixed sentiments across Africa, large parts of which her country colonized for centuries. Several African statesmen paid solemn tributes, while others took a more critical view of Britain's colonial actions and legacy. In Malawi, there were some mixed reactions across generations, but overall the people were generally saddened by her passing. The British monarch had a royal visit to Malawi back in 1979, which is a fond memory for many Malawians even to this day. Connections between Malawi and Queen Elizabeth II have generally been strong as a former British colony and protectorate. In fact, the country’s biggest referral hospital in the country is named after her in Blantyre.


The Queen's arrival in Malawi in 1979


The trip was a mix of emotions in the culmination of events that led up to it, but the people I met from it and the bonds that emanated as a result were what made it so memorable. To be able to experience history and also attend a very informative course at Imperial College London was an honor and privilege. Life can seemingly pass by in the blink of an eye, but sometimes we have to take a step back and realize that in order to make the most of an opportunity, we must seize the moment. That's something I certainly took away from this experience.

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